Has Spring Sprung

El Nino has presented us with such a mild winter that the vegetation is a tad confused.

Harbingers of Spring in the East are often Forsythia, Rosebud and Camellias. However a quick stroll about the gay ghetto this afternoon proved that the order of things are a bit topsy-turvy.

1. Hellabora: This shade-loving plant is often found in low-lying areas under forest cover near a stream (see the picture for a rather high end example). In an urban environment, creative gardeners in Dupont have adapted it to their small rowhouse gardens. I noted several cases of these delicate plants in bloom today. Months ahead of schedule.

2. Bears have emerged from their hibernation. While walking about I noticed a number of bears out and about. One notable pair was seen pouring beer in their Starbucks coffee cups outside the Carnegie.

3. Swamp iris: There was a nice clutch of iris not only growing lushly but ready to bloom on P street in a rowhouse garden. These ought not been seen until April.

4. Saucer/Japanese Magnolias: Takoma has some ancient Saucer/Japanese Magnolia trees in the neighborhood that have budded and are ready for bloom. Easily two months ahead of schedule.

5. Cherries in bloom: The bears pouring beer by the Carnegie did so under the light wisps of pink; months ahead of schedule.

Sadly, a brief view of the weather makes me wonder what will happen to these buds and flowers when the lows will drop into the teens and lower 20s this week (and highs in the 30s) as a polar high pressure system works south and east from Manitoba.

Will the strong southern branch of the jet stream fed by the El Nino in the eastern Pacific beat back this incursion in short order? Or shall winter begin in earnest? We mustn't prematurely confuse the El Nino with global warming, as the Peruvians (perhaps this is what Harry Reid is consulting upon during his "fact finding" mission to Macchu Pichu?) have noted this effect for many decades (evidenced by the massive death of sardines which cannot handle the warm upwelling in the Pacific). Previously, the El Nino has been strong in the mid 80s and mid 90s which led to unusually warm winters and a reduction in Atlantic hurricanes. As with those years, this past year shared an interesting phenomenon associated with El Nino. During this phenomenon, there is a drastic increase in eastern Pacific hurricanes that land in Mexico - the broad flow that brings them ashore in western Mexico. This broad flow also pushes the Atlantic hurricanes back out to sea and leaves Bermuda as target practice.